The Future of Palm Oil in Europe


European Union on their new resolution the Renewable Energy Directive also known as RED 2 or The Directive, feedstock for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) that come from unsustain process are banned with approach called Indirect-land usage change (ILUC) as criteria for material selection. Palm oil is included as unsustain material for RES because the indirect land-usage change from forest, wetland and peatland into cropland.

European Union feels their effort to reduce greenhouse gas emission with Renewable energy sources (biofuel) is wasted as the producer of biofuel material do deforestation and produce greenhouse gas emission more than EU tried to reduce. The EU made bold statement with RED II as to ensure the RES producer stop deforestation. The Directive adopted on March 13, 2019 and have two-month period scrutiny period to express an objection. Indonesia and Malaysia as the palm oil largest producer think The Directive is discriminative against their material and sent an objection letter to challenge it for the future of palm oil in Europe.

1. European Union current usage, future plan and Palm oil for Renewable Energy Sources

European Union mandated their 28 state members to maximizing usage of renewable energy sources and enforce the usage to at least 32% by 2030[1], and with another sub target that member states must require renewable energy fuel supply a minimum 14% of the energy that consumed in the road and rail transport by 2030[2]. Current 2017 report show that EU member states usage of Renewable Energy Sources currently sit on 17.52%[3], main consumption on RES is on transportation, Electricity and Heating & cooling.

A. EU consumption Renewable Energy Sources for Transport (RES-T)

In 2016, the EU consumption of sustainable biofuels amounted to 13,840 ktoe (kilotonnes of oil equivalent) 6.7% of total Transport energy usage. The Final bioenergy consumption in EU for transport breakdown to Road 13,796 ktoe, Rail 33.1 ktoe, Domestic Navigation 5 ktoe, non-specified transport 6.7 ktoe and zero for International and Domestic aviation. Of  this, 11,083  ktoe  (80%)  was  biodiesel  and  2,620  ktoe  (19%)  was  bioethanol. In 2016, Sweden (30.3% of renewable fuel energy used in transport) and Austria (10.6%) were the only two Member States to reach the target of using 10% of renewable fuel energy for transport. While France (8.9%) and Finland (8.4%) were relatively close to achieving the target, most of the other EU Member States were around the half-way point to meeting the 2020 objective. With a use of less than 3% of energy from renewables in transport, Estonia (0.4%), Croatia (1.3%), Greece (1.4%) and Slovenia (1.6%), followed by Cyprus (2.7%) and Latvia (2.8%) were furthest from the 10% target[4].

B. EU consumption Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E)

In 2016, the EU consumption of RES for Electricity amounted to 29.6% total Electricity usage, Hydro power is the most important source with 36.9%, followed closely by wind power 31.8% and then solar power 11.6%. Other renewable sources for generating electricity include wood, biogas, renewable waste and geothermal energy. At the level of EU Member States, in five countries more than half of the electricity consumed in 2016 was generated from renewable sources: Austria (73 %), Sweden (65 %), Portugal and Denmark (both 54 %) and Latvia (51 %). In contrast, there were four countries where less than 10 % of the electricity consumed in 2016 came from renewable sources: Malta (6 %), Luxembourg and Hungary (both 7 %) and Cyprus (9 %)[5].

C. EU consumption Renewable Energy Sources for Heating & Cooling (RES-H)

In 2016, the EU consumption of RES for Heating & Cooling amounted to 19.1% total Heating & Cooling in European Union (EU). This is a significant increase from 10.4 % in 2004. Increases in industrial sectors, services and households contributed to this growth. Aerothermal, geothermal and hydrothermal heat energy captured by heat pumps was also taken into account if reported by countries. In four EU Member States, more than half of the total energy used for heating and cooling came from renewable energy sources in 2016: Sweden (68.54 %), Finland (54.75 %), Latvia (54.6 %) and Estonia (51.81 %) and the highest is negotiating EU member Montenegro (69.19%).  In contrast, the lowest shares were in the Netherlands (5.38 %), Ireland (6.3 %) and the United Kingdom (6.97 %)[6].

          2. The Palm Oil and specification as unsustain feedstock

The Directive reinforces the EU sustainability framework for bioenergy, in order to ensure robust greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission savings and minimize unintended environmental impacts, with introduced a new approach called indirect land-use change (ILUC) associate with biofuel, bioenergy and biomass, this sustainability framework set criteria that the use of materials from high ILUC Renewable Energy Sources will gradually became zero at 2030.  Palm oil is phased out by EU, Using Ecofys, IIASA & E4tech report that claim it as one of the feedstock with highest ILUC expansion since 2008 and highest contributed to GHG emission with 231 grams of CO2e per megajoule of biofuelconsumed–(gCO2e/MJ) this method of calculation using GLOBIOM model with 20 year amortization, including DLUC which oppose by far to IFPRI & JRC-EC report that placed palm oil at 54-64 gCO2e/MJ[7][8]

The Palm oil are categorized into High ILUC risk with expansion 45% since 2008 into land referred in article 29(4)(b)(c)[9], EU argue that expansion palm oil was so massive and change previous wetland & forested area into palm oil agriculture area with report from IIASA, EPA, & GARD. The classification of commodities to deforestation impact is also signed on Amsterdam Declaration in 2015 with purpose eliminating deforestation from agricultural commodity chains. Yield of Palm oil is actually higher than their counterparts for biofuel 4500 liters per hectare dwarfing rapeseed almost 3.5 times with 1200 liters per hectare and soybean just 400 liters per hectare[10], by the yield result Palm oil establish itself a giant for renewable energy sources by yield but EU think that the process of this feedstock production that make EU phase it out and claim it as unsustain renewable energy sources.Most  64%  of  the biodiesel  consumed  in  the  EU  in  2016  was  produced  from  feedstock  from  the  EU,  mainly from  rapeseed  38%,  used  cooking  oil 13%,  animal  fat  8%  and  tall  oil  2.5%.  Of  the remaining  36%  of  biodiesel  consumed  in  the  EU,  19.6%  was  palm  oil  from  Indonesia 13.3%  and  Malaysia  6.3%, 6.1%  was  rapeseed  from  mainly  Australia  2.6%,  Ukraine 1.8% and Canada 1.2%, 4.8% was used cooking oil from various countries outside the EU and 4.3% was soybean from mainly the United States 1.5% and Brazil 1.5%[11]

Palm oil production in Indonesia in 2015 is 31.07 million ton with breakdown Private Sector 58.56%, Government 7.55% and Smallholder farmer 33.88% on 11.02 million ha with Private sector 53.12%, Government 6.61% and Smallholder farmer 40.28%[12] ,based on 2016 The Indonesia Ministry of Agriculture the smallholder farmer produce less than Private Sector or Government, and actually the smallholder farmer was the biggest player on the directive 2, because Mr. Saragih on World Plantation Conference and Exhibition 2017 estimated that smallholder farmer cropland will double their area on 2030 with forecast about 60% of total Indonesia palm oil cropland[13]. This forecast is based the data that on 1982 small holder palm oil farmer hold 2% of palm oil cropland increase to 26% in 1990 and on 2015 hold 40.28%.

The Forest fire for opening palm plantation in Indonesia also need to take into account when talking about Palm oil sustainability, no justification for burning forest as the step to plant the feedstock for renewable energy sources. Burning forest for new plantation or old plantation that no longer productive is the cheapest way to clear the land, not only smallholder who do not understand climate impact for their action but big corporation also took the same action, which in 2015 Indonesia 7 company executives and investigating 24 companies and 126 individual[14]. This action need to be stop soon and Indonesian Government need to take responsibilities on this. As the fire happen in some provinces in Indonesia and with the effect of El Nino the haze is occurred in some ASEAN country risking health and climate impact. The haze happened several time with 2015 was one of the largest and forest fire for palm plantation is the main suspect, which Indonesian Government estimated 475 Trillion IDR (35.2 billion USD) cost as the effect of the haze[15].

          3. Impact

Indonesia and Malaysia reacted to the Directive with fury and will be challenged the RED 2 with trade boycott on EU products, Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest producer of the palm oil. Indonesia Coordinating minister of Maritime Affairs Luhut Pandjaitan said it will about the survival of 20 million people under direct/indirect of the palm oil production, Indonesia palm oil export to Europe is accounted 3.32 billion USD[16] about 18.24% of total Palm oil export and in Malaysia is accounted at 1.2 billion USD[17] about 12.4% of total Palm oil export. Both Indonesia and Malaysia sent joint letter of objection about the Directive to European Commission and feel that the directive is discriminative toward usage of their material.

Indonesia even took further step with threaten to quit Paris Agreement, the decision which I think took in rush and didn’t look for long term longevity not only on Palm oil trade but other Indonesia products, Malaysia follow the step to boycott EU products. EU is a market that these 2 largest palm oil producer can’t lose by any measure, especially on the usage of palm oil as biofuel, because EU is a pioneer of green technology and have committed to it, so the market is already there and need to fill but need to follow the regulation. As the adoption of supplementing Directive to RED 2 on March 13, 2019 about the determination high/low ILUC the EU exempt the small holding farmer as it stated on article 5[18], this exempt is already on debate in EU itself, Green energy advocate stated that this is not over and want to repeal the exemption on small farmer, this will be directly endanger livelihood of the small holding farmer.

The Directive also make a huge economic impact, as feedstock price for the biofuel sinking since EU plan to revise the Directive, the feedstock that EU used for biofuel mainly are rapeseed, palm oil and soybean. The price of palm oil and soybean oil which EU highlighted it as unsustain fell apart with high price volatility on this commodity, on commodity market Rapeseed and Palm oil are sold per metric ton while Soybean oil using pound, which needed 2204.623 to equivalent a ton[19]. As of May 10th, 2019 the price of Palm oil are on 461.65 USD[20], rapeseed 360.75 USD[21] and soybean oil on 595.25 USD[22]all per metric ton, with price of palm oil sunk it is harder for smallholder to establish as sustainable process for their palm oil production, plus their exemption on the Directive is it likely they will continue to practice unsustain way to produce palm oil, which make this endless loophole.


         4. Conclusion

Palm Oil is a feedstock which famous for high yield and cheap to produced, could be the answer for renewable energy sources, with world population in 2019 is more than 7.5 billion and with limited amount of land for food, if produced following sustainability standard. EU knows that to achieve Paris Agreement climate change target that keeping global temperature to below 2 percent needed serious commitment, and giving the example for rest of the world by released Renewable Energy Sources Directive, which is a great move for EU 28-member states but not so good for their diplomatic action.

Palm Oil Future in Europe is just not about Sustainable Green Energy, but also Politic, and Economy. European Union indirectly ask Indonesian  Government to keep their forest and not to expand the palm oil plantation into high carbon stock area with Renewable Energy Directive II, on my opinion EU plan to pushed Indonesia to stop deforestation with the Directive is a harsh way. EU plan for better future should be tighten on diplomatic relation between EU and two largest palm oil producer and solve the problem together carry on the sustainable Palm oil, Indonesian minister for Coordinating Economic Affair said that Indonesia is willing to accept the EU terms but with the standard sustainable Palm oil come higher production cost with EU also bear the price of this sustainable palm oil in the future, but will they? Well in this free market and France yellow vest movement, I don’t think so.

Indonesia need to start produce all of their product sustainable not just Palm oil, but pulp and paper also rubber from now on, not just because the risk of losing EU market but the awareness of climate change, currently only EU raise concern about Palm oil sustainability as Indonesia and Malaysia largest trading partner China and India not yet concern about this but it is right decision to produce all product sustain on all level: small holding farmer, private company and government plantation itself, Indonesia already starting ISPO and RSPO certification but need to push harder as currently only few companies that hold the certification, producing sustainable product also make a great reputation for Indonesia.

          5. Resolution

My resolution on this case are EU and largest producer of palm oil Indonesia & Malaysia to reach an agreement about the Directives, there is some option that both country could achieve: 

        A. Export Biofuel rather than raw material.

Both Indonesia and Malaysia need to exporting more biofuel rather than raw material, as the largest producer of the feedstock it is right act to produce the biofuel by itself, make holding biofuel company and treat it as Saudi Arabia to Aramco not just increasing GDP but also creating job opportunity on this future industry.

B. Stop Deforestation and create joint task observer

Deforestation is impacted to climate change so huge, producing of palm oil should not be expanding by deforestation, and risk the future of the World, and this is not just about because the trade with European Union only but with the rest trading partners. Indonesia, Malaysia and European Union can make a joint action task on oversee the palm oil process production and create a win-win solution.

       C. Educate smallholding farmer and Take back unsustain land.

Smallholding farmer need to be educated on the production, regulation, market access and climate change, current yield of smallholding farmer also the lowest compared to government plantation and private company high yield on palm oil not just increasing their revenue but also make the earth healthier and Indonesian Government need to act serious about regulation and tack back unsustain and illegal plantation if needed. 

      D. Applicable certification from EU and ISPO

Indonesia Government already had ISPO (Indonesia Sustainable Palm Oil), and RSPO (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil) and need to strengthen on this area, and ensure all palm oil producer certified with it.


E. Don’t pull off Paris Agreement

Pulling out from Paris Agreement because Palm Oil just reckless, it’s not about Palm oil only but also the world, Indonesia already received payment from Norway to keep its tropical jungle from deforestation and more to come as 2020 EU plan to spend 100 billion EUR on REDD+.






References

[1] European Union, Directive 2018/2021 Promotion Renewable Energy Sources, 2, (11), 2018.
[2] European Union, Directive 2018/2021 Promotion Renewable Energy Sources, Article 25 (1), 2018.
[3] European Commission, Renewable Energy Progress Report, 3, April 9th 2019. 
[4] Eurostat, Share of energy from renewable source - transport (nrg_ind_335a), June 26th 2018.
[5] Eurostat, Share of energy from renewable source - electricity (nrg_ind_335a), June 26th 2018.
[6] Eurostat, Share of energy from renewable source – heating & cooling (nrg_ind_ren), June 21st 2019.
[7] ECOFYS, IIASA, E4tech, The Land use change impact of biofuel consumed in the EU, X, October 8th 2015
[8] European Union (Wageningen Economic Research, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Wageningen Environmental Research, National Renewable Energy Center) Reporting Requirements on biofuel and bioliquids stemming from the Directive (EU) 2015/1513, 45-49, August 2017.
[9] European Commission, supplementing Directive (EU) 2018/2001 as regards the determination of high indirect land-use change-risk feedstock for which a significant expansion of the production area into land with high carbon stock is observed and the certification of low indirect land-use change-risk biofuels, bioliquids and biomass fuels, March 13th 2019.
[10] CIFOR, Technologies to produce liquid biofuels for transportation, 7, 2011.
[11] European Commission, Renewable Energy Progress Report, 10, April 9th 2019. 
[12] Tree Corp Statistics of Indonesia 2015-2017, Indonesia Directorate General of Estate Corps-Ministry of Agriculture, 3, 2016.
[13] Oil Palm Smallholders In Indonesia: Origin, Development Strategy And Contribution To The National Economy, Prof. Dr. Ir. Bungaran Saragih, M.Ec. , 7, 2017.
[16] The Observatory of Economic Complexity, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/idn/show/1511/2017/
[17] The Observatory of Economic Complexity, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017
[18] European Commission, supplementing Directive (EU) 2018/2001 as regards the determination of high indirect land-use change-risk feedstock for which a significant expansion of the production area into land with high carbon stock is observed and the certification of low indirect land use change-risk biofuels, bioliquids and biomass fuels, Article 5(3), March 13th 2019.
[19] Agricultural Commodity Metric Conversion Guide, CME Group, 6, 2014.



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